Saturday, February 10, 2007

Firsties

Now that Barack Obama has officially thrown his hat into the Presidential contest, it's time to assess the three "firsties" in the race: Obama as the first African-American with a realistic chance of getting the nomination, Mrs. Clinton as the first female with same, and Mitt Romney as the first serious LDS contender.

Who is the likeliest to go the distance? Who has the greatest set of obstacles to overcome? How would you advise one or all of these hopefuls as they proceed? For example, would you advise Mitt to confront the religious issue directly, as John F. Kennedy did with the Baptist ministers in Houston early in his campaign? JFK reminded the ministers that no one asked him about his religion when he volunteered to defend the country in World War II, and he declared he could not believe he lost any chance to be President of the US by dint of being born into a Catholic family. That was un-American, he said in essence. Mitt could do something like that...he could point to the Senate Majority Leader, Harry Reid, and prominent Republican senator Orrin Hatch, as examples of successful LDS public servants. The sky did not fall on the evangelical Protestants when those fellows were elected.

I personally believe Mrs. Clinton is traveling the rockiest road, not because of her gender, but of the LONG shadow cast by that prominent pol to whom she is married. What is his role? Whatcha gonna do with a First ex-President Husband?

13 comments:

german said...

i think milt has the most difficult road not because of religion but because of lack of name reconigtion. he is stuck in a primary against probably rudy and mccain. both have lots of name power milt could be setting himself up for 2012 since it is likely the democrats will win the 08 election
obamba would be best served to use his prowess as fresh and new. look at the mess hillary was involved in personally during husbands administration. and attack him as well as her since the general public would be inclinded to believe it would be a return to bill and the gang in white house. and to balance his ticker i would suggest to see if joe biden would be interested in the vp job to give experience to the ticket.

german said...

does jesse jackson count in 84? mondale did pick ferraro to be vp in a lost cause also in 84

moville said...

I didn't count Jackson because he didn't get the nomination of a major party. Obama very well could at this point. Gerry Ferraro was the first to run for Vice Prez, and I guess technically she would've become Prez if something had happened to Mondale, but Mrs. Clinton is the first woman with a realistic chance of at least getting the nomination, if not the Presidency. I think the jury is still out on her electability. At least half the people I know in this town think she is the antiChrist. that's a bit difficult to overcome...
and I think she has no chance among those who disliked her husband, because you can't help feel that you are "getting two for the price of one" again. the others don't have that kind of human baggage...

LaPopessa said...

I loved the Daily Show's take on the diversity of the Democratic ticket so far. The first (with a chance to win) African-American, woman, LDS member, dwarf (poor Kucinich), etc. And then they showed the Republican candidates who were breaking barriers by being all . . . white men.

If I'd never been a member of the Democratic party before, I'd flee the Republicans and join Dems just for this alone LOL.

SS97 said...

I believe the Mormon is, in fact Mit Romney, a Republican. Rudy Giuliani is a Republican and an Italian-American. If he was elected president he'd be our first ever Italian-American president and our second ever Catholic president. Of course, this kind of stuff doesn't matter much to me. I don't vote for a candidate based on their race or gender, I vote for the candidate who represents my views.

I'm personally looking forward to "The Half Hour News Hour" which is a conservative spinoff of the Daily Show and the Colbert Report

SS97 said...

I think Hillary will go the distance. The only Republican candidate who stands a chance is Giuliani, and he wont win because the Republican base wont back him; he's too liberal on cultural issues. The Republicans need another Ronald Reagan, but unfortunately guys like him dont come around too often.

moville said...

hey, what was that about a "conservative Colbert?" Where and when?
I would not bet on Hillary's getting the nomination...she's a lightning rod, like Nixon or Gingrich, just controversial, and I think people want consensus. A Ronald Reagan type, if there is one out there, would have a huge advantage in this climate.

mishdiaz said...

Yep, I agree we need a Ronald Reagan, but he was none too popular in his time though. Remember all the naysayers? I think Hillary will be the nominee for the Dems. Barack is just not ready. Anybody hear his comment about pulling everybody out by March next year? Can't realistically see that happening. Course he could use that as well. Anyway, I am guessing Hillary for sure and possibly Barack as her running mate. That would just set the Dems and the young Dems on fire. She is a lightning rod, but still popular among the Clinton gang. I think maybe Giuliani for the Republicans, but watching over my shoulder. McCain is popular across the board, but famous for his temper. Think that may hold him back? btw, Colbert is just too too funny.... maybe we should start a write-in campaign LOL

SS97 said...

The "Half Hour News Hour" will debut on Feb 18th on Fox News Channel (surprise surprise). I'm not sure what time it's going to be on, though. The producer of "24," Joel Surnow, will be producing it I guess.

http://www.mediabistro.com/tvnewser/fnc/half_hour_news_hour_debuts_feb_18_52888.asp

SS97 said...

Actually Reagan's approval ratings were pretty high during most of his soncond term. Hillary also said she'd bring the troops home as soon as she stepped foot in the White House.

mishdiaz said...

Guess I was among the naysayers at that point... I was pretty positive he was going to bring the wrath of the Soviet Union down upon us. Guess we know how that turned out, right? lol... I heard Hillary say that she would not put a deadline on troop withdrawal. Hill would not be hedging her bets now would she?

SS97 said...

Hillary is all over the map on Iraq.


http://apnews.myway.com/article/20070202/D8N1QQR02.html

SS97 said...

whoops.
http://apnews.myway.com
/article/20070202
/D8N1QQR02.html